How much can you spend in retirement without outliving your
money? It's one of the most fundamental questions confronting anyone
who's retired--or getting ready to.
But it's a head-scratcher for many, according to a
survey
from the American College of Financial Services. Seven in 10
individuals between the ages of 60 and 75 with at least $100,000 said
they were unfamiliar with the oft-cited 4% withdrawal-rate guideline.
Meanwhile, 16% of survey respondents pegged 6% to 8% as a safe
withdrawal rate.
That's a problem. Because setting a sustainable
withdrawal rate--or spending rate, as I prefer--is such an important
part of retirement planning, pre-retirees and retirees who need guidance
should seek the help of a financial advisor for this part of the
planning process.
And at a bare minimum, anyone embarking on
retirement should understand the basics of spending rates: how to
calculate them, how to make sure their spending passes the sniff test of
sustainability given their time horizon and asset allocation, and why
it can be valuable to adjust spending rates over time.
How to Calculate ItTo
determine your own spending rate, simply tally up your expenses--either
real or projected--in a given year. Subtract from that amount any
nonportfolio income that you're receiving in retirement: Social
Security, pension, rental, or annuity income, to name a few key
examples. The amount that you're left over with is the amount of income
you'll need to draw from your portfolio. Divide that dollar amount by
your total portfolio value to arrive at your spending rate.
Say,
for example, a retiree has $60,000 in annual income needs, $28,000 of
which is coming from Social Security and the remainder of
which--$32,000--she will need to draw from her portfolio. If she has an
$800,000 portfolio, her $32,000 annual portfolio spending is precisely
4%. But if she needs to draw $50,000 from her portfolio, her spending
rate is 6.25%.
The 4% Rule, UnpackedThe
notion that 4% is generally a safe withdrawal rate was originally
advanced by financial planner William Bengen; it has subsequently been
refined--but generally corroborated--by several academic studies,
including the so-called Trinity study. Before retirees take the 4%
guideline and run with it, however, it's important to understand the
assumptions that underpinned it.
First,
the research assumed that retirees would wish to maintain a consistent
standard of living, drawing a steady stream of income--in dollars and
cents--from their portfolios each year. Thus, the 4% guideline assumes
that the retiree spends 4% of his or her initial balance in year one of
retirement, then subsequently nudges the amount up in subsequent years
to keep pace with inflation. He or she doesn't take 4% of the balance
year in and year out, though that's a viable spending-rate method, too
(more on this in a moment).
Additionally, the 4% guideline assumes
a 60% equity/40% bond asset allocation and a 30-year time horizon, and
that the 4%, whether it comes from income and dividend distributions or
from selling securities, is the total withdrawal. Thus, a retiree whose
portfolio was generating 4% in income distributions couldn't take an
additional 4% from her principal. This
article discusses the 4% guideline research in greater detail.
Swing FactorsBecause
not every retiree's profile matches those parameters, not every retiree
should take the 4% guideline and run with it. Indeed, much of the
recent research on spending rates has suggested that rather than take 4%
of a portfolio per year and simply inflation-adjust that dollar value,
retirees should be prepared to adjust their spending rates up or down
based on the following factors.
Time Horizon: Retirees
with time horizons that are longer than 30 years should plan to take
well less than 4% of their portfolios in year one of retirement. On the
flip side, older retirees--those 75 or older, for example--might
consider taking a higher withdrawal rate. David Blanchett, head of
retirement research for Morningstar Investment Management, has suggested
that retirees consider their life expectancies when determining their
spending rates. The life-expectancy factors used to calculate required
minimum distributions from IRAs and company retirement plans could be
helpful in doing so, as Blanchett discussed in this
video.
Asset Allocation:
A retiree's asset allocation should also be in the mix when calibrating
sustainable spending rates. The 4% guideline, as noted above, is
centered around a 60% equity/40% bond mix. But investors who want to
employ a portfolio that includes more bonds and cash should be more
conservative in their spending rates, as Blanchett discussed in this
video.
The reason is that bond yields have historically been a reasonable
predictor of bond performance in subsequent years, and bond payouts are
ultralow right now. Thus, the bond-heavy investor can expect less help
from the market in the years ahead.
Market Performance:
The bear market of 2008 illustrated so-called sequencing risk: Retirees
greatly reduce their portfolio's sustainability potential when they
encounter a lousy market early on in their retirements and don't take
steps to reduce their spending. That's because if they overspend during
those lean years, they leave less of their portfolios in place to
recover when the market does.
The Right Spending Strategy for YouIndeed,
much of the recent research on sustainable withdrawal rates supports
the idea of tying in withdrawal rates with portfolio performance. The
retiree takes less out in down-market years and can potentially take
more out in years when the market performs well, such as in 2013.
The
purest way to tie in spending with portfolio performance is simply to
take a fixed percentage of that portfolio--say, 4%--year in and year
out. Under this method, the retiree could take $32,000 from her
portfolio when its value is $800,000, but would be forced to live on
$24,000 if her portfolio dropped to $600,000 in value. Using the
fixed-percentage method, the retiree would never run out of money, but
she might not be able to make do on the smaller amount.
For
retirees who aren't comfortable with such dramatic fluctuations in their
standards of living, it's possible to employ a hybrid approach: tying
in spending with market movements while also ensuring a basic standard
of living. One such strategy, discussed
here,
blends fixed-percentage withdrawals with a ceiling and floor. A simpler
strategy, advanced by T. Rowe Price and discussed in this article,
allows the retiree to spend a fixed dollar amount, adjusted upward for
inflation, as in the 4% guideline. But the retiree simply forgoes the
inflation adjustment in lean market years. T. Rowe's research found that
even this simple step helped improve portfolios' sustainability.
Culled from Morning star